RECONFIGURACIÓN DEL ORDEN ECONÓMICO INTERNACIONAL
en el contexto de la nueva administración de Estados Unidos.
Escenarios
Escenario 1 #Continuidad ALTA PROBABILIDAD/BAJO IMPACTO
El presidente Trump escenifica la toma de medidas económicas de bajo impacto real, enfocadas a contentar a su electorado, pero la política económica de la nueva administración de EEUU sigue una línea continuista con la anterior administración.
Escenario 2 #EEUUsedebilita BAJA PROBABILIDAD/ALTO IMPACTO
La nueva administración de EEUU establece medidas altamente proteccionistas de su economía, lo que provoca que otros países tomen medidas recíprocas, sus relaciones comerciales se debiliten y por tanto su economía, beneficiando a otras potencias como China o la UE.
Escenario 3 #Destitución BAJA PROBABILIDAD/BAJO IMPACTO
Se produce la destitución del presidente de los EEUU (por uno de los supuestos que permite la constitución – “traición, soborno, delitos graves o abusos de poder”) y la política económica se retoma donde la dejó la administración anterior.
Escenario 4 #Prevalencia ALTA PROBABILIDAD/BAJO IMPACTO
Las políticas económicas de la nueva administración se enfocan hacia nichos comerciales, tecnológicos y competitivos. EEUU prevalece sobre otras potencias económicas emergentes.
Fuentes
Fuente | Fecha | Título | Recuperado de: | NFCF |
---|---|---|---|---|
IEEE | 2016 | El gasto en defensa de la OTAN. | Acceder | B2 |
NATO: Public Policy Division | 2016 | Press release: Defence expenditures of NATO countries (2009-2016) | Acceder | A1 |
Sputnik News | 2017 | Experto: «Nacionalismo de Trump hará intrascendentes a la OTAN y ONU» | Acceder | D2 |
Global News | 2017 | Reality check: Donald Trump says NATO members need to pay more. What is Canada paying? | Acceder | C1 |
Bruegel | 2016 | Trump, NATO and European defence spending. | Acceder | B1 |
Express | 2017 | Donald Trump BATTERS Brussels with order to STOP EU Army plans or lose US NATO support. | Acceder | D3 |
Time | 2017 | Donald Trump Demands on NATO Defense Spending Are Driving a Wedge Into Europe. | Acceder | C2 |
Europa Press | 2016 | Morón y Rota, a la espera de que Trump aclare su indefinición en política exterior. | Acceder | C3 |
Infodefensa | 2016 | Cospedal se inclina por aumentar el presupuesto de defensa un 30% para incluir los PEA. | Acceder | C3 |
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) | 2017 | Nato and the United States. | Acceder | B1 |
Georgetown Security Studies Review | 2017 | Nato without América: A Grim Prognosis | Acceder | B2 |
Harvard International Review | 2017 | Nato’s Baltic Problem: How Populism, Russia, and the Baltic can fracture NATO. | Acceder | B2 |
Harvard Political Review. | 2016 | Nato’s Uncertain Future. | Acceder | B2 |
Nuclear Threat Initiative | 2016 | Nato’s Nuclear Future: Deter, Reassure, Engage? | Acceder | B3 |
The International Security Studies Forum (ISSF) | 2017 | America and the World – 2017 and Beyond. «The Future of the Atlantic Alliance under President Trump» | Acceder | B3 |
Harvard International Review | 2017 | Populism and Terror: An interview with Noam Chomsky. | Accede | B2 |
Nato Review Magazine. | 2017 | Will the populist wave wash away NATO and the European Union? | Acceder | A2 |
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation | 2017 | About Us | Acceder | A2 |
El Comercio | 2014 | El Perú asumirá la presidencia dle APEC en 2016. | Acceder | C2 |
La Vanguardia | 2016 | El Foro APEC, el mayor bloque de cooperación económica del mundo. | Acceder | C2 |
Alianza del Pacífico | 2017 | ¿Qué es la Alianza? | Acceder | A1 |
America’s trade policy | 2017 | Trade, Growth, and Jobs: U.S. Trade Policy in the Obama Administration | Acceder | C3 |
New York Times | 2017 | What is TPP? Behind the Trade Deal that Died. | Acceder | B2 |
El Economista México | 2017 | Estudiarán el futuro del TPP post-Trump | Acceder | B3 |
The Idependent | 2017 | By scrapping TPP and TTIP, Trump has boosted American Jobs in the short term-and destroyed them in the long term. | Acceder | C2 |
Bloomberg | 2017 | How Would Trump Rework Nafta-and What Turn Mexico, Canada Want in Return | Acceder | B2 |
The White House | 2017 | America First Foreing Policy | Acceder | A1 |
CNN | 2017 | VP Pence heads to Asia-Pacific amid North Korean posturing | Acceder | C2 |
The Guardian | 2016 | Trump’s phone call with Taiwan president risks China’s wrath | Acceder | B2 |
The New York Times | 2016 | U.S. Demands Return of Drone Seized by Chinese Warship. | Acceder | B2 |
El Pais | 2017 | Trump intenta apaciguar los temores de Japón | Acceder | B3 |
Asia Matters For America | 2017 | The Trump Administration & US-Asia Pacific Relations. | Acceder | C3 |
Bussines Insider | 2017 | Here’s How Trump plans to stop North Korea and what’s wrong with his approach | Acceder | C3 |
Slate | 2017 | Unstrategic Impatience: North Korea’s nukes are a long-term worry, not an immediate crisis. Trump’s belligerence could change that | Acceder | C3 |
Wharton: University of Pennsylvania | 2017 | ASEAN in 2017: Can the región sidestep Trump’s trade threats? | Acceder | B2 |
Project Syndicate | 2017 | Why Trump can’t bully China | Acceder | B3 |
Bloomberg Politics | 2017 | Mnuchin Says He Won’t Label China a Currency Manipulator…Yet | Acceder | B2 |
Brookings Institution | 2017 | Surprise! Trump’s Foreign Policy is Turning Out Okay | Acceder | B2 |
The Diplomat | 2017 | What Trump’s TPP withdrawal means for the US Asia policy | Acceder | C2 |
The Diplomat | 2016 | Beware the Myth of Warring US-China Trade Pacts | Acceder | C2 |
Australian Strategic Policy Institute | 2017 | Trump and Startegic Change in Asia | Acceder | C3 |
CSIS Asia Economic Strategy Commission | 2017 | Reinvigorating U.S. Economic Startegy in the Asia Pacific | Acceder | B2 |
The Asia Foundation | 2015 | TPP and RCEP: Boon or Bane for ASEAN? | Acceder | B3 |
Foreign Policy | 2017 | Eyeing North Korean Nukes, Trump Abandons Hardline Stance on China | Acceder | B2 |
Brookings Institution | 2017 | Renewable Energy Employs 8.1 Million People Worldwide, Says New IRENA Report | Acceder | B2 |
The Economist | 2017 | Donald Trump launches an attack on climate-change policy | Acceder | B1 |
Fortune | 2017 | What Trump’s Climate Change Executive Order Means for the Future of Clean Energy | Acceder | C2 |
Harvard Business Review. | 2017 | Trump’s Climate Rollback Will Hurt the Economy, Not Help It | Acceder | B2 |
ThinkProgress | 2017 | Trump’s budget sabotages America’s best chance to add millions of high-wage jobs | Acceder | C3 |
IRENA Press Release | 2016 | Renewable Energy Employs 8.1 Million People Worldwide, Says New IRENA Report | Acceder | A2 |
Bloomberg Politics | 2017 | Trump to Issue Far-Reaching Reversal of Obama Climate Push. | Acceder | B2 |
Center for American Progress | 2017 | Battling Climate Change in the Time of Trump | Acceder | C2 |
CNN | 2017 | US faces disgrace if Trump drops Paris climate pact. | Acceder | C2 |
Poject Syndicate | 2017 | Donald Trump’s Climate Fantasies | Acceder | B3 |
STCLAN | 1994 | Textos jurídicos del Acuerdo de Libre Comercio de América del Norte. | Acceder | A1 |
STCLAN | 1994 | NAFTA. Capítulo XVII: Propiedad intelectual | Acceder | A1 |
The Globe and Mail | 2017 | Canada sees third straight trade surplus; gains ‘no longer a blip’ | Acceder | B2 |
Gobierno de Canadá | 2017 | Trade data online | Acceder | A1 |
Bennett Jones | 2017 | Trump, Canada and the Future of NAFTA: Some FAQs | Acceder | B2 |
Bloomberg Politics | 2017 | Trump Gives Trudeau Assurance on Canada Trade Relationship | Acceder | B2 |
El País | 2017 | Trump resucita dos polémicos oleoductos frenados por Obama | Acceder | B2 |
Gobierno de Canadá | 2017 | Energy Relations | Acceder | A1 |
Bloomberg Politics | 2017 | ‘Frankenstein’ U.S. Border Tax Will Hurt Consumers, Canada Warns | Acceder | B2 |
The Globe and Mail | 2017 | NAFTA, dairy and softwood: What’s going on with Trump? A guide to the trade file | Acceder | C3 |
Reuters | 2017 | Canada to Mexico on NAFTA: you might be on your own | Acceder | B2 |
The Globe and Mail | 2017 | Mexico could end security co-operation if Trump pushes trade terms, Economy minister warns | Acceder | B2 |
Comisión Europea | 2017 | Página sobre el Acuerdo Transatlántico sobre comercio e inversión | Acceder | A1 |
Comisión Europea | 2017 | Página sobre comercio con EEUU | Acceder | A1 |
Comisión Europea | 2017 | Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership Advisory Group Meeting report | Acceder | A1 |
Comisión Europea | 2017 | Documento: European Commission services’ position paper on the sustainability impact assessment in support of negotiations of the Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States of America | Acceder | A1 |
Comisión Europea | 2016 | Informe sobre la decimoquinta ronda de negociaciones de la asociación transatlántica de comercio e inversión. | Acceder | A1 |
Comisión Europea | 2016 | Informe sobre la decimocuarta ronda de negociaciones de la asociación transatlántica de comercio e inversión | Acceder | A1 |
Berlin Forum on Global Politics | 2014 | The transatlantic colossus | Acceder | C2 |
El País | 2016 | La UE firma el acuerdo comercial con Canadá tras una enconada negociación | Acceder | B2 |
Delegación de la Unión Europea en México | 2016 | Tratado del libre comercio entre México y la Unión Europea | Acceder | A1 |
Chatham House | 2017 | America´s International Role Under Donald Trump | Acceder | B2 |
Real Instituto Elcano | 2017 | La economía mundial ante 2017 | Acceder | B2 |
The Hispanic Council | 2017 | Miembros del Gabinete de Donald Trump | Acceder | A1 |
Dirigentes Digital | 2017 | El futuro del comercio internacional: TPP, NAFTA Y TTIP | Acceder | B2 |
The Economist Intelligence Unit | 2016 | Lower for longer. The world economy will struggle to gain altitude. The World in 2017. | Acceder | A2 |
The Economist Intelligence Unit | 2016 | Anti-globalist on the march. Free trade under fire. The World in 2017. | Acceder | A2 |
The Economist Intelligence Unit | 2016 | Market at the mercy of politics. The World in 2017 | Acceder | A2 |
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | 2017 | Next Steps in the «Special Relationship»: Impact of a U.S.-U.K. Free Trade Agreement | Acceder | A2 |
The Economist Intelligence Unit | 2016 | Planet Trump. The World in 2017 | Acceder | A2 |
The German Marshall Fund of the United States | 2017 | What America’s Economy First Means for Europe | Acceder | B3 |
CNBC | 2017 | Kissinger says a ‘creative’ Brexit could link Europe back with America and redefine the West | Acceder | B2 |
Fortune | 2017 | Theresa May is trapped between Brexit and Donald Trump’s America. | Acceder | B3 |
IEEE | 2017 | La geopolítica ha vuelto para quedase | Acceder | B2 |
Real Instituto Elcano | 2016 | Trump on trade: from populism to policy. | Acceder | B2 |
Project Syndicate | 2016 | Donald Trump and the New Economic Order | Acceder | B2 |
Financial Times | 2016 | Donald Trump and the dangers of America First | Acceder | B2 |
The Guardian | 2016 | How America´s New President Will Affect the Global Economy | Acceder | B3 |
Web campaña electoral Trump | 2016 | Donald Trump’s contract with the American Voter | Acceder | D3 |